Heathrow expansion risks diverting thousands of jobs from UK regions, report finds
New Economics Foundation analysis warns that the third runway would displace 15,200 aviation jobs from outside London, while GDP impact remains minimal at 0.05 per cent annually.
A Department for Transport economic paper indicates that expanding Heathrow airport with a third runway would result in the loss of millions of passengers for airports in England and Wales, including approximately 7.5 million annually for Birmingham airport by 2050. The New Economics Foundation analysis suggests this shift would displace around 15,200 aviation jobs from other regions and 6,400 from other London and south-east airports. While the government argues the project will create over 60,000 local jobs and boost the economy by £2.6bn, critics note the projected GDP impact is only up to 0.05% per year and highlight significant adverse health effects for three million nearby residents.
The findings cast doubt on the political support for the expansion following the appointment of Prime Minister Andy Burnham, who has pledged to rebalance infrastructure spending away from the south of England. This contrasts with the stance of former Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who previously championed the project. The New Economics Foundation stated that the jobs created at Heathrow primarily represent a transfer of employment from other parts of the country rather than new growth, noting that the plan appears to move investment to London and the south-east.
DfT modelling published alongside the consultation confirms that the overall economic boost could be a fraction of what ministers had hoped. A peer review of the GDP analysis stated it would be erroneous to claim a broad distribution of gains to other regions. Despite this, a Department for Transport spokesperson insisted the analysis was misleading, arguing it ignores the potential for over 60,000 local jobs and claims up to 40% of the £2.6bn economic boost would occur outside London and the south-east.
Heathrow chief executive Thomas Woldbye contested the findings, stating that traditional infrastructure appraisal models do not capture benefits from increased exports or private investment in UK supply chains. He argued that trade unions and businesses across the country back the project, which is estimated to cost £33bn and allow the airport to operate up to 756,000 flights annually. The government has promised to accelerate construction to open the runway by 2035, a date that has been targeted previously but never met.
Other impact assessments published with the consultation highlight significant adverse effects on the health and wellbeing of up to three million people living nearby. The proposed 3,500-metre runway would pass over the current location of the M25 motorway. While the government maintains that passenger numbers at Birmingham airport are forecast to triple by 2055, critics argue the environmental and regional economic costs outweigh the projected benefits.
