Golf model predicts Bryson DeChambeau will struggle at 2026 PGA Championship
A proprietary algorithm has simulated the upcoming event 10,000 times, projecting Tommy Fleetwood for a strong showing while Scottie Scheffler remains the odds-on favourite.
A proprietary computer model developed by DFS professional Mike McClure has released a set of betting predictions for the 2026 PGA Championship following 10,000 simulated tournaments. The analysis, available via SportsLine, suggests outcomes that diverge from current market expectations, particularly regarding the performance of defending champion Scottie Scheffler and Bryson DeChambeau.
While the defending champion, who won last year's event by five strokes at Quail Hollow, remains the favourite at +350 according to FanDuel odds, the model projects that DeChambeau will barely crack the top five. This projection contrasts with DeChambeau's current +1000 odds and his history of three straight top-five finishes at the PGA Championship, even as the tournament approaches its start on Thursday, 14 May, at Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania.
The algorithm also highlights Tommy Fleetwood as a player expected to have a strong showing despite his longer odds of +2500. The 2025 Tour Championship winner is seeking his first major victory and has recorded four top-10 finishes this season. Although Fleetwood has struggled with putting metrics recently, the model indicates that if he can improve his performance on the greens, he possesses a genuine shot to be a contender.
The model, which claims a track record of correctly predicting 17 major championships including the 2026 Masters, also targets several longshots. Among these is a player going off at odds much higher than 20-1 who is projected to make a stunning run for the title. The simulation results are intended to assist with PGA picks, one and done contests, and DFS lineups for the upcoming weekend.
Recent form provides context for these projections, with Rory McIlroy having successfully defended his Masters title earlier in the season. Meanwhile, DeChambeau recently withdrew from the Masters and struggled in Mexico City due to wrist discomfort, though he has historically performed well at the PGA Championship. The model's data suggests that historical success at the event may not guarantee a top-five finish given recent physical limitations.
The full projected leaderboard and specific betting picks derived from the 10,000 simulations are accessible through SportsLine, allowing bettors to compare the algorithm's long-term data against current market odds from providers such as FanDuel and DraftKings.
