Gold futures hold above $4,400 as markets await US inflation data

Gold December futures opened at $4,430 on Wednesday, 12 August 2026, before recovering to trade at $4,470.40 by 7:35 a.m. ET. The precious metal has maintained its position above the $4,400 threshold, supported by a softer-than-expected employment report released last week and anticipation surrounding the upcoming US Consumer Price Index data.

Economists are forecasting that the July CPI will show a deceleration in annual inflation to 3.4 per cent, down from June’s 3.5 per cent increase. A month-on-month rise of 0.1 per cent is also expected. This inflation print is being closely scrutinised by markets following the recent labour market data, which has influenced expectations for Federal Reserve monetary policy.

The outcome of the CPI report will likely dictate the central bank’s next moves. A hotter-than-expected inflation figure could strengthen the case for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in September. Conversely, signs of further easing in inflation could provide the central bank with greater latitude to hold rates steady.

As of Tuesday, traders were pricing in a roughly 50-50 probability of an interest rate hike in September. The current pricing reflects the uncertainty surrounding the inflation trajectory and its impact on the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions in the coming months.

Gold’s strong performance comes against a backdrop of significant recent gains. As of 29 January 2026, the metal’s one-year gain stood at 95.6 per cent. The asset continues to attract attention as investors weigh geopolitical tensions and economic indicators to determine the most effective methods for exposure, ranging from physical holdings to futures contracts.