Former Sports Illustrated expert Gene Menez releases 2026 Kentucky Derby selections
The 2026 Run for the Roses takes place at Churchill Downs on Saturday, 2 May, with Menez noting concerns over the favourite's late-running style.
Gene Menez, a former handicapper for Sports Illustrated, has released his 2026 Kentucky Derby selections ahead of the Run for the Roses. The expert, who achieved a $1,045 payout last year, has identified Chief Wallabee as a key contender while expressing reservations regarding the morning-line favourite, Renegade. Menez shared these insights on 29 April, positioning them as a critical read for punters ahead of the race scheduled for Saturday, 2 May.
The 2026 Derby is set to run at Churchill Downs with a post time of 6:57 p.m. ET. Menez's analysis suggests that the field contains significant talent, noting that Renegade, Commandment, and Further Ado are among the top earners in the race. However, Menez is fading Renegade, the 4-1 favourite, due to specific concerns about the colt's running style. He argues that Renegade is a late-running closer who may drop ground if forced to pass horses on the outside late in the race.
In contrast to the favourite, Menez is high on Chief Wallabee, who enters the field at 8-1 odds. Trained by William Mott, the horse is trained by a 72-year-old who has over 5,400 career wins, including victories in the 2019 and 2025 Kentucky Derbies. Menez suggests that blinkers could provide a significant advantage for Chief Wallabee, noting the similarity between this horse and the favourite Commandment.
The field dynamics have shifted slightly following a scratch on Wednesday morning. Silent Tactic was removed from the entry list, bringing Great White into the 2026 Kentucky Derby field. Great White is one of three longshots at 50-1, adding to the depth of the competition. Menez highlights one horse as the "big winner of the post draw" and another as a double-digit longshot offering the "best value," though he has not disclosed the specific names for these two categories in the provided text.
Menez's credibility in the sport is well-established, having served as Sports Illustrated's handicapper for the Triple Crown races between 2010 and 2012. His track record includes correctly predicting Super Saver to win the Kentucky Derby in 2010 and accurately calling the 2015 superfecta. More recently, he hit the late Pick 4 on Kentucky Oaks day for $915.48 and secured a $1,045 payout in the Kentucky Derby last year.
As the race approaches, the focus remains on how the morning-line odds will shift against Menez's projections. While Renegade holds the 4-1 favourite status following wins at the Arkansas Derby and the Sam F. Davis Stakes, Menez's warning regarding a clean trip and ground loss adds a layer of complexity to the betting landscape. The full projected leaderboard and specific wagers are available via the expert's platform, SportsLine.
