Experts predict US midterm elections may drive Russia-Ukraine ceasefire
While front-line progress remains stagnant, Kyiv has reduced reliance on Western arms, and experts argue that shifting US priorities may compel Moscow to accept a ceasefire, though a full peace deal remains unlikely.
Four years into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, military analysts and political experts suggest the conflict may reach a turning point following the US midterm elections in November. While front-line progress remains stagnant, experts note Ukraine has reduced reliance on Western arms, covering up to 70% of its own needs. US diplomat Kurt Volker and former Pentagon appointee Evelyn Farkas argue that domestic political pressures in the US and worsening economic conditions in Russia could force Moscow to accept a ceasefire, though Volker doubts a full peace agreement is imminent.
Volker, who served as US special representative for Ukraine until 2019, stated that Ukraine is no longer in the same precarious position it was a year ago, when President Volodymyr Zelenskyy feared losing the war without US support. He noted that Kyiv can now cover "up to 60% or 70%" of its own military needs, reducing its dependence on Western deliveries. However, Volker also noted that the US can no longer guarantee the same volume of missiles for Patriot air defence systems due to President Donald Trump’s prioritisation of the conflict with Iran.
Evelyn Farkas, a foreign policy expert and former Pentagon appointee at the McCain Institute of the Arizona State University, believes Russia will not attempt another mass mobilisation, citing current difficulties in the Russian economy as a deterrent. She expects the Trump administration to end its conflict with Iran by summer, after which attention may shift to Cuba, potentially weakening Russia’s strategic ties. Farkas believes Zelenskyy will be able to withstand any pressure to accept Russian ceasefire conditions, such as withdrawing troops from parts of the Donbas.
The chair of the NATO military committee, Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, described the war as "difficult" to win on the battlefield due to the continued strength of the Russian army. Despite this, Farkas and Volker agree that the midterm House election in November will be a critical turning point, as it could weaken Trump’s standing in the Republican party. This shift may put pressure on the US government to continue its support for Ukraine and NATO, even as global focus remains on other crises.
Volker estimates a "50%" chance that a significant shift in the conflict will occur before the end of the year. He argues that while negotiations to end the war have been a "farce," the deteriorating reality in Russia could force President Vladimir Putin’s hand. "I think they could accept a ceasefire at some point. And I think we’re getting closer to that point," Volker said, distinguishing between a temporary halt to fighting and a comprehensive peace agreement, which he remains sceptical about.
