Expert Jody Demling advises against Kentucky Derby favourite Renegade
Horse racing analyst Jody Demling has released his betting picks for the 2026 Kentucky Derby, citing historical data and post-position draws as key factors in his recommendations.
Horse racing analyst Jody Demling has released his betting picks for the 2026 Kentucky Derby, advising punters to avoid the 4-1 morning-line favourite, Renegade, despite the horse's victory in the Arkansas Derby. The expert notes that success at Churchill Downs is not guaranteed by a strong showing elsewhere, pointing to a historical trend where only three other Arkansas Derby winners since 2015 have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby.
Instead of backing the favourite, Demling supports Commandment and Further Ado, both priced at 6-1 odds. Commandment, a half-sibling of Renegade, carries a strong pedigree with a damsire who won the 2013 Kentucky Derby. However, Demling highlights the horse's poor post-position draw of No. 6, which has a historically low 2.1 per cent win rate, as a significant negative factor for the runner.
Further Ado is noted for a recent victory in the Blue Grass Stakes, though Demling questions the strength of the competition in that race. The analyst suggests that while the horse has surged up the board after three wins in his last four races, it is difficult to determine if this indicates genuine improvement or merely a lack of challenging opposition.
The 2026 Kentucky Derby is scheduled to take place on Saturday at 6:57 p.m. ET at Churchill Downs. While a projected field of 20 horses is expected, historical data indicates that scratches are almost the norm for the race. Since 2011, at least one horse has been scratched in every running, with only six instances in the last 15 years seeing a full 20-horse field compete.
Jockey Luis Saez is riding Commandment for the first time in a Triple Crown race, having previously ridden the horse to four consecutive wins. Demling has a strong track record in his own analysis, having nailed the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 12 times in the last 17 years and correctly predicting the top three finishers in 2025.
Demling also identifies a longshot horse that demolished the field in its last start as a potential value pick, though the specific name is not provided in the current reporting. The full projected leaderboard and detailed picks are available via the SportsLine platform where Demling shares his analysis.
