Evercore initiates SpaceX coverage with Outperform rating ahead of Starship Flight 13
Analyst Kutgun Maral highlights the company’s path to reshaping humanity, though he cautions that Starship scaling and commercial traction in broadband and computing sectors remain unproven.
Investment bank Evercore ISI has initiated coverage of SpaceX with an Outperform rating and a $230 price target, coinciding with preparations for the 13th test flight of its Starship rocket. The launch, scheduled for no earlier than Thursday from Starbase, Texas, marks the second flight of the Version 3 design. This initiation follows a period of significant volatility for the company, with shares falling nearly 7% over the past five days and trading down more than 38% from their peak of $225.64.
Evercore analyst Kutgun Maral described SpaceX as a vertically integrated machine that has leveraged its near-monopoly on access to orbit to build the Starlink connectivity franchise. The bank’s thesis centres on the integration of five connected businesses: launch services, Starlink broadband, satellite-to-phone mobile service, terrestrial computing, and orbital data centres. Maral projected that this model would drive revenue and EBITDA compounding at 106% and 157% respectively through 2028, with operating margins widening from 35% to 69% over the same period.
The upcoming Starship Flight 13 represents a critical juncture for the company’s heavy-lift launch capabilities, which are central to its plans for satellite deployment and eventual travel to the Moon and Mars. The previous launch in May saw the Super Heavy booster suffer heat damage during separation and fail to re-ignite its engines, resulting in the loss of the booster. The Version 3 design, which debuted less than two months ago, aims to address these challenges with a bigger and more powerful configuration.
Despite the bullish outlook, Maral cautioned that the company must still prove its ability to scale Starship and gain traction in key commercial sectors. The first operational payload for Starship is targeted for the second half of this year, while the viability of orbital computing is not expected to be tested until 2029 or later. Additionally, the commercial success of SpaceX’s AI products, including Grok and Cursor, remains unproven against entrenched enterprise rivals.
Evercore’s model suggests that growth can accelerate rather than fade as the decade progresses, provided management delivers on these milestones. The $230 price target implies roughly 65% upside from the stock’s close of $139.14 prior to the rating initiation. The bank’s assessment underscores the high stakes involved in SpaceX’s transition from a launch provider to a diversified technology infrastructure player.
