Ethiopia elections: Analyst warns of legitimacy crisis due to exclusion of Tigray and other constituencies

Ethiopians are currently heading to the polls for national elections, a process that has drawn scrutiny from political analysts regarding its inclusivity and legitimacy. Jervin Naidoo, a political analyst at Oxford Economics Africa, told France 24 that the exclusion of the Tigray region and 147 other alleged constituencies from the voting process constitutes a significant problem that undermines the government's standing.

Naidoo argued that while voting has proceeded in much of the country, the absence of key ethnic groups from the ballot box hurts the government's legitimacy. He described the situation as a country suspended between promise and peril, where official narratives emphasise stability and democratic progress, yet significant portions of the population remain excluded from the political process.

The analyst highlighted concerns regarding political centralisation and growing feelings of exclusion among key ethnic constituencies. Naidoo warned that if Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed secures an overwhelming electoral victory, he may take further measures to consolidate control, potentially leading to increased tensions across the Horn of Africa.

Despite these political concerns, Naidoo acknowledged Ethiopia's considerable economic potential, describing the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam as an amazing piece of infrastructure for both Ethiopia and Africa. He noted that the country remains one of Africa's most strategically important economies, with underlying green shoots that continue to attract investors.

However, the political landscape remains complex, with long-standing democratic and regional challenges casting a shadow over the nation's future. Naidoo predicted that tensions could become more pronounced, potentially driven by Ethiopia's strategic ambitions, including access to the sea, as the country navigates the balance between economic promise and political peril.