ESPN model cuts Ohio State’s Texas win probability after 56–3 opener
The Matchup Predictor projects Ohio State to go 7–1 across the listed games, but rates the Buckeyes as underdogs at Texas.
ESPN’s Matchup Predictor has revised its estimates for Ohio State’s remaining 2026 schedule after the Buckeyes opened the season with a 56–3 win over Ball State.
According to Buckeyes Wire’s reporting on the model, Ohio State’s projected win probability at Texas fell from 46.3 per cent to 40.1 per cent. Texas is the model’s projected winner for the 12 September road game.
The model left Ohio State’s win probability against Kent State unchanged at 99.0 per cent. It increased the Buckeyes’ probabilities against Illinois, Iowa, Indiana and USC, while slightly reducing the estimate for the Maryland game.
Across the listed fixtures, ESPN’s model projects Ohio State to reach a 7–1 record. That figure is a projection based on the model’s probabilities, not a completed season result.
The schedule context includes road games at Texas, Iowa, Indiana and USC, alongside home fixtures against Oregon and Michigan. ESPN updates the estimates after each round of games as new results become available.
