ESPN analyst warns against overvalued NFL stars in 2026 fantasy draft
Fantasy managers are advised to steer clear of players whose average draft positions exceed their expected statistical production and availability, with several top-tier athletes cited as excessive risks.
ESPN fantasy analyst Eric Karabell has released his annual 'Do Not Draft' list for the 2026 NFL season, advising managers to avoid players whose average draft positions are inflated relative to their expected statistical production and availability. The guide highlights significant injury risks and value concerns for several high-profile players, including New York Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers, quarterback Jaxson Dart, and running back Cam Skattebo.
Karabell argues that despite their talent, these players pose too much risk regarding health, workload, or offensive volume for their current draft value. The core of the recommendation is that availability is paramount, and securing players who are question marks for their health status is dangerous for fantasy outcomes. Nabers, who suffered multiple knee surgeries, remains a significant uncertainty despite his rookie success, while Dart and Skattebo have histories of concussions and severe injuries respectively.
Other players flagged for fading include Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen, New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye, Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels, San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey, and Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice. Allen is cited not for a lack of production, but for the opportunity cost of using a second-round pick on a quarterback when the position is deep. Maye faces a tougher defensive schedule, while Daniels’ injury history from his previous season raises durability concerns.
McCaffrey’s inclusion is based on workload sustainability, with Karabell noting that running backs rarely handle high snap counts in consecutive seasons. Rice is highlighted as a 'games' risk due to a combination of injury and suspension history, making him an unreliable option for early-round selection. The list also questions the value of other running backs like Kenneth Walker III and Kyren Williams, citing volume concerns and potential statistical regression.
The analysis extends to wide receivers and tight ends, with Karabell cautioning against overdrafting rookies who have not yet proven their durability in the NFL. Veterans like A.J. Brown and Marvin Harrison Jr. are advised against as top-tier options due to declining performance or inconsistent production. The overarching theme is that fantasy value must be weighed against the tangible risks of missed games and reduced offensive volume, rather than raw talent alone.
