El Niño heat projection raises concern over exposure in vulnerable countries
The University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab estimates extreme heat could cause up to 451,000 excess deaths worldwide in the six months to February 2027.
Extreme heat linked to this year’s “super El Niño” could cause up to 451,000 excess deaths worldwide in the six months to February 2027, researchers at the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab estimate. The figure is a projection, not a reported death toll.
The researchers expect extremely hot days to rise by 44%. The supplied material does not specify how that increase was calculated.
Nigeria, Indonesia and Sudan are among the countries likely to be most affected, according to the researchers. The source provides no further detail on how country-level exposure was assessed.
The researchers warn that impacts could extend beyond the six-month period studied. The estimate covers the period to February 2027.
