Diaz, Grichuk lead MLB home run prop selections for Friday
With 37 days remaining in the 2026 regular season, SportsLine analyst Matt Severance identifies Yandy Diaz and Randal Grichuk as key home run candidates, while Kyle Schwarber remains the favourite for the championship.
SportsLine analyst Matt Severance has released his expert home run prop picks for Friday, 21 August 2026, with 37 days remaining in the Major League Baseball regular season. The selections focus on matchups where specific hitters have demonstrated historical success against opposing pitchers, a strategy Severance employs to identify value in the remaining regular season games.
Tampa Bay Rays All-Star Yandy Diaz is highlighted as a primary selection for his matchup against Baltimore Orioles pitcher Trevor Rogers. Severance describes Diaz as an underrated hitter who has posted a 1.341 career slugging percentage against the left-hander. Diaz, who has hit 19 home runs in the 2026 season, is noted for his strong recent performance against Rogers, including a home run in the series finale on Monday.
The second key selection is Chicago White Sox outfielder Randal Grichuk, who faces New York Mets pitcher Sean Manaea. Grichuk has a strong career record against Manaea, hitting two home runs in 19 career at-bats. The 35-year-old, who began the season with the New York Yankees before joining the White Sox, has recorded 10 home runs and a .547 slugging percentage in 2026.
Manaea, who is under a three-year, $75 million contract with the Mets, has surrendered 16 home runs in 111.0 innings this season. Twelve of those home runs were hit by right-handed batters, a factor that influences the prop betting landscape for Friday’s game at the Rate.
Beyond the daily prop bets, the article notes updated futures odds for the MLB home run championship. Philadelphia Phillies’ Kyle Schwarber currently leads the market as the +130 favourite to win the award. Houston’s Yordan Alvarez (+200) and Atlanta’s Matt Olson (+250) follow as the next contenders in the odds.
The betting context is further shaped by the financial disparity between teams, with the New York Mets holding the MLB-high payroll of $357 million, compared to the Chicago White Sox’s $83 million. Despite these differences, Severance’s analysis suggests that specific player-pitcher dynamics offer the most reliable path for home run prop bets in the final stretch of the season.
