Datafolha poll shows Lula and Bolsonaro tied at 45 per cent ahead of Brazil election
A new survey by Datafolha reveals a statistical tie between Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Flavio Bolsonaro, marking a significant narrowing of the gap since late 2025.
A Datafolha poll released on Saturday indicates that incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and right-wing challenger Flavio Bolsonaro are tied at 45 per cent support ahead of Brazil’s October presidential election. The survey, conducted on May 12 and 13 with nearly 2,004 respondents, shows the two candidates locked in a dead heat, with 9 per cent of voters indicating they would cast null ballots and 1 per cent remaining undecided.
The results mark a substantial shift from late 2025, when Lula held a wide lead in the race for a fourth nonconsecutive term. Lula, now 80 years old, previously served as president from 2003 to 2011, establishing a record focused on social programmes to reduce hunger and increase federal assistance. Flavio Bolsonaro, a senator representing Rio de Janeiro, is seeking to continue the political legacy of his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting to plot a coup and subvert the 2022 election results.
The poll release coincides with intensifying scrutiny over Flavio Bolsonaro’s campaign activities, specifically regarding a film project about his father’s life titled Dark Horse. Leaked WhatsApp messages published by The Intercept Brasil on May 13 revealed that Flavio and his brother Eduardo Bolsonaro solicited funding from Daniel Vorcaro, a banker arrested for an alleged fraud scheme. Vorcaro reportedly pledged $24 million, or 134 million Brazilian reals, to the project, which has cast US actor Jim Caviezel in the role of the former president.
Flavio Bolsonaro has acknowledged reaching out for financing but denied any connection to Vorcaro’s alleged criminal activities. In a statement, he insisted that the funding was for a private project unrelated to the banker’s legal troubles, stating, “It is necessary to separate the innocent from the criminals.” He described the arrangement as a son seeking private sponsorship for a private film about his own father’s life.
Left-wing lawmakers have called for an investigation into the film funding, adding to the political pressure on the challenger. This controversy follows previous criticism in December regarding statements that appeared to suggest Flavio Bolsonaro might withdraw from the race in exchange for his father’s freedom, though he later clarified his candidacy was irreversible. Additionally, Brazil’s Supreme Court has authorised federal police to investigate whether Flavio Bolsonaro made defamatory statements about Lula.
