Data Dispute: US Claims Middle East Oil Rebound Clashes with Private Tracking

A sharp divergence has emerged between US government assertions and independent data regarding the volume of oil exports flowing from the Middle East. Energy Secretary Chris Wright claimed this week that regional exports have rebounded to 15 million barrels per day (bpd), a figure that reportedly exceeded pre-war averages and reached 20 million bpd on Sunday. However, private vessel-tracking services and commodity analysts have disputed these numbers, estimating that actual flows are significantly lower.

Ship-tracking data indicates that exports leaving the Strait of Hormuz are at best 5 million bpd, with total regional exports estimated between 9 million and 10 million bpd. This creates a discrepancy of 3 million to 5 million bpd between the US administration’s figures and observations compiled by Reuters from multiple tanker-monitoring companies. Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler, stated it was not possible to reconcile the disparity between the observed data and Secretary Wright’s claims.

In response to the criticism, Secretary Wright doubled down on the administration’s position, asserting that the US Department of Energy maintains the best available data in coordination with the US military. He alleged that private businesses undercount shipments due to vessels moving covertly through the waterway. However, the official did not disclose the methodology used to compile or analyse the department’s data, leaving the source of the higher figures opaque to market observers.

The conflict is further complicated by the stance of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), which in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook described traffic at the Strait of Hormuz as “severely constrained.” The EIA assumes these constraints will persist throughout August, directly contradicting the narrative of a full rebound in export volumes. Analysts note that the true volume of exports will become clearer in the coming weeks as shipments begin to appear in import data across various countries.

Amidst the data dispute, US consumers are facing significant financial pressure. The national average price of gasoline reached $4.06 per gallon, the highest level recorded for mid-August since 2008. With US-Iran peace talks hitting a new deadlock and fears of supply disruptions from attacks in the Gulf of Oman and Red Sea, the administration faces scrutiny as midterm elections approach in November. While some suggest the US may be attempting to talk down oil prices, the reality of high pump prices remains a critical issue for voters.