Data analysis suggests Sunderland would have been relegated under expected points metric

BBC Sport, in collaboration with Opta, has published a retrospective analysis of the 2025-26 Premier League season utilising alternative statistical metrics to evaluate team performance. While Arsenal secured the league title, ending a 22-year wait for the championship, the data suggests significant discrepancies between actual results and underlying performance indicators. The report constructs hypothetical league tables based on expected points (xPTS), home versus away performance, set-piece efficiency, and long-range goals.

The analysis indicates that Sunderland would likely have been relegated if points were awarded strictly based on expected points, while Chelsea would have qualified for the Champions League under the same metric. Aston Villa would also have finished in the bottom half of the table based on xPTS. Expected points are calculated by comparing the quality of goalscoring chances a team creates against those they concede, serving as an indicator of whether a team has over-performed or under-performed relative to the quality of chances created.

Tottenham Hotspur demonstrated a significant disparity in their performance, earning enough points on the road to qualify for the Europa League if only away trips counted. Fulham exhibited the greatest contrast, with their home results significantly outperforming their away form. Everton and Nottingham Forest also performed better away from home, contrary to expectations regarding the impact of home atmosphere.

The 2025-26 season was characterised by a high volume of goals from set-pieces and the prominence of specialist coaches on the touchline. Arsenal were identified as among the best performers from set-pieces, a key talking point of the season. The report also includes hypothetical tables ranking teams solely by goals scored from outside the box and by goals scored exclusively by English players, referencing preparations for the upcoming international tournament involving the Three Lions.

The data serves as a retrospective assessment of team performance relative to underlying data, rather than a prediction of future outcomes. Analysts note that while expected points are useful for assessing genuine strength in attacking and defensive performance, real points remain the only metric that determines league positions and prizes. The report invites scrutiny on whether these metrics provide genuine insight into team strength or merely highlight statistical anomalies.