Cyprus election set to fracture traditional political order
With DISY and AKEL projected to remain top forces but with reduced shares, the emergence of ELAM and new parties signals a profound shift in the island’s governance landscape.
Voters in Cyprus are preparing to head to the polls on May 24 for a parliamentary election that analysts describe as one of the most significant in decades. While the parliament holds limited powers within the country’s presidential system, the outcome is expected to substantially reshape the political landscape, weakening the long-standing bipartisan model and accelerating the rise of new anti-establishment movements.
According to recent opinion polls cited by journalist and political analyst Sotiris Paroutis, the race for the top two positions will likely remain between the conservative Democratic Rally (DISY) and the left-wing Progressive Party of Working People (AKEL). Both parties are projected to secure approximately 20% of the vote each, a figure that represents a decline from their historical highs. For DISY, the election serves as a test of resilience following the loss of the presidency in 2023 and subsequent internal tensions. AKEL, meanwhile, aims to win the general election for the first time since 2006 by capitalising on recent political momentum.
The traditional centrist forces, including the Cyprus Green Party, the EDEK Socialist Party, and the Democratic Alignment party, are losing support and are unlikely to enter parliament. This erosion of centrist influence is being driven by corruption scandals, growing public frustration, and declining trust in the political establishment, creating space for newer entities to gain traction.
The far-right National Popular Front (ELAM) is expected to emerge as the third-largest political force with around 10% of the vote. Having entered parliament in 2016 with associations to Greece’s neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party, ELAM has undergone a deliberate rebranding strategy and recruited figures from across the political spectrum. Under the slogan "Cyprus First," the party now combines hardline anti-immigration rhetoric with conservative positions on social issues, positioning itself to exert considerable influence on future parliamentary alliances.
Newer movements are also capitalising on public anger toward the political establishment. The Direct Democracy movement, led by YouTuber Fidias Panayiotou, promotes participatory politics and technology-driven citizen involvement, with poll estimates ranging from 4% to 12%. Similarly, the centrist ALMA party, founded by former Auditor General Odysseas Michaelides, is seeking to channel frustration over corruption and accountability, with polls suggesting it could secure around 8% of the vote.
The shift toward parties with vague ideological identities has caused concern among the traditional political establishment. Parliamentary Speaker Annita Demetriou (DISY) recently expressed unease regarding the rise of these newer movements, stating she "shudders at the thought of who we may have in the next parliament." Dr. Nayia Kamenou of the University of Cyprus noted that political parties have lost credibility, leading to the emergence of movements that claim seats in parliament as ideological purity fades.
Although the parliamentary election has no direct influence on the makeup of the government, it will determine the alliances parties must form to support their candidate in the next presidential election, scheduled for 2028. The current polling data indicates a profound transformation of the political scene, characterised by the collapse of traditional centrist forces and the emergence of new players to fill the resulting void.
