Crimea strike kills three as US warns of escalation risk amid St Petersburg attacks

A Ukrainian strike on Simferopol in Crimea has killed at least three people and wounded seven others, according to Moscow-installed authorities. The attack occurred on Thursday, following a series of strikes on energy and military infrastructure in Saint Petersburg the previous day, which targeted an oil terminal and the Kronstadt military base during the St Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF).

Sergey Aksyonov, the Moscow-installed head of the Crimea region, confirmed that preliminary reports indicated the strike hit non-residential buildings. "Emergency services are currently at the scene," Aksyonov wrote on Telegram. The incident marks a significant escalation in Ukrainian long-range capabilities, occurring as 20,000 delegates from 130 countries gathered for the annual forum, an event often described as Russia’s equivalent of Davos.

Ukrainian officials have framed the Saint Petersburg attacks as justified retaliation for intensified Russian bombardment of Ukrainian territory. Sergiy Sternenko, an adviser to the Ukrainian defence minister, noted that the strikes were intended to disrupt the conference, with black smoke visible from the venue as sessions began. President Volodymyr Zelensky stated during a press conference in Kyiv with NATO chief Mark Rutte that Ukraine was responding "accordingly" to Russian actions, adding that it was "just a matter of time before we can scale up the intensity of our responses."

The geopolitical fallout has been immediate. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned of a "real" risk of escalation, noting Ukraine’s increasing effectiveness in conducting long-range strikes deep into Russian territory. Speaking to the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Rubio lamented the lack of progress in ending the war, stating that neither side had made the necessary concessions for peace, particularly on the Russian side. He emphasised that the risk of escalation was now more acute than it was two years ago.

Conversely, EU foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas interpreted the Ukrainian actions as a sign of distress from the Kremlin. "It clearly shows also panic on the Russian side," Kallas told AFP, arguing that President Vladimir Putin was increasing terrorist attacks on civilians because he was "losing money, men, and momentum." Meanwhile, Russian attacks continued to inflict casualties within Ukraine, with local officials reporting at least 10 deaths across the country, including a drone strike on a bus in Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine that killed at least seven people.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov vowed a "systemic" response to the Saint Petersburg strikes, while attendees at the forum expressed a degree of resignation to the security risks. Valeria, a 32-year-old Moscow businesswoman at the event, told AFP she was accustomed to the threat of attacks, stating, "We have been living under such attacks for many years now." President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to deliver a keynote address at the forum on Friday.