Corn Futures Retreat as Brazil Raises Production Outlook
September and December corn futures declined on Thursday, with the CmdtyView national average Cash Corn price dropping to $4.18 1/4 as market participants digest revised production forecasts from Brazil and weekly export sales figures.
Corn futures declined on Thursday, reversing the gains achieved during Wednesday’s rally. Contracts across the near-term curve fell between 5 and 9 cents at the close, reflecting a shift in market sentiment following the release of fresh data on export sales and global supply projections.
The CmdtyView national average Cash Corn price dropped 9 cents to settle at $4.18 1/4. Specific contract prices also moved lower, with September 2026 corn closing at $4.48, down 9 cents, while December 2026 corn settled at $4.72, down 8 3/4 cents. March 2027 corn closed at $4.87 3/4, down 8 3/4 cents, and New Crop Cash was recorded at $4.23 7/8, down 8 1/2 cents.
Export sales data for the week of August 6 provided a mixed picture for the sector. Old crop sales totalled 410,748 metric tonnes, marking a five-week high and significantly outperforming the net cancellations recorded during the same week last year. Spain emerged as the top buyer for old crop, purchasing 257,600 metric tonnes, while Mexico bought 74,000 metric tonnes.
New crop sales, however, presented a softer outlook. Total new crop sales amounted to 924,532 metric tonnes, a three-week low that represented a 54.9 per cent decrease compared to the same period last year. Mexico was the primary purchaser of new crop corn, acquiring 416,400 metric tonnes, with an additional 253,700 metric tonnes sold to unknown destinations.
Supply-side pressures were exacerbated by updated production forecasts from Brazil. The Brazilian agricultural agency CONAB raised its 2025/26 corn production estimate by 1.23 million metric tonnes to 142.96 million metric tonnes. The revision was largely driven by an upgrade to the second crop, which was increased by 1.6 million metric tonnes to 111.03 million metric tonnes.
As reported by Barchart.com, the combination of weaker new crop sales and increased Brazilian supply estimates contributed to the downward pressure on prices. The data underscores the ongoing volatility in agricultural markets as traders weigh domestic demand against expanding global supply from key producers.
