Conflicting claims over Strait of Hormuz attacks disrupt fragile ceasefire and spike energy costs
The incident has reignited fears of a return to full-scale war in the Gulf, with global oil and fertiliser prices surging amid reports of further violence against regional shipping and infrastructure.
Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have escalated sharply following conflicting reports of attacks on Monday that have threatened to collapse a fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran. Iranian officials allege that US military forces targeted two passenger boats carrying civilians, resulting in the deaths of five people. This account stands in direct contradiction to statements from US Central Command, which claimed its forces sank six or seven Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps vessels during an operation dubbed Project Freedom.
The dispute highlights a fundamental disagreement over the nature of the engagement in the vital maritime corridor. An unnamed Iranian military commander stated that Tehran launched an investigation following the US claim of attacks on IRGC vessels. The inquiry reportedly found that no IRGC vessels were hit, but rather that US forces had destroyed two small boats carrying passengers travelling from Khasab in Oman to the Iranian coast. The commander asserted that the US must be held accountable for the loss of civilian life, a claim for which there was no immediate comment from the US military.
These developments have severely undermined the diplomatic stability established on 8 April. The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of the world's energy supplies flow, and fears that the closure of the waterway could trigger a global recession or food emergency have caused significant surges in oil and fertiliser prices. Iran insists on maintaining control of the strait and collecting transit fees as reparations for previous destruction, while simultaneously warning commercial vessels that they will jeopardise their safety if they attempt to cross without permission.
Regional instability has widened beyond the immediate confrontation between Washington and Tehran. Authorities in the United Arab Emirates reported that Iran launched a drone attack on an oil tanker and fired 15 ballistic missiles and four drones at its territory. These attacks reportedly caused a fire at a major refinery in Fujairah and wounded three Indian nationals. Concurrently, a South Korean vessel, the HMM Namu, reported an explosion causing a fire in its engine room while transiting the strait.
Despite the heightened danger, the US military stated that two US-flagged ships exited the Gulf accompanied by navy guided-missile destroyers. The global shipping firm Maersk confirmed that the US-flagged Alliance Fairfax left the strait with US military support, a claim the IRGC denied as baseless and completely false. Amidst the violence, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that there is no military solution to the political crisis, noting that peace talks mediated by Pakistan are making progress.
President Donald Trump has renewed his threats against Iran, stating that the nation would be "blown off the face of the Earth" if it attacks US vessels carrying out Project Freedom. He cited superior global military capabilities and extensive stockpiles of equipment as justification for his stance. As both sides exchange warnings and the ceasefire frays, the risk of a return to full-scale war continues to loom over the region's energy security and geopolitical stability.
