Computer model challenges market odds ahead of 2026 Truist Championship
With Scottie Scheffler absent, Rory McIlroy remains the favourite, but a model that has correctly predicted 17 majors offers a divergent view on the field.
The 2026 Truist Championship, a Signature Event on the PGA Tour schedule, is set to commence at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, N.C. This tournament carries the same status as last week's Cadillac Championship and serves as a key lead-in to the upcoming PGA Championship. While the market currently favours Rory McIlroy at +550, a proprietary computer model developed by DFS pro Mike McClure has generated alternative insights after simulating the event 10,000 times.
The model, built by SportsLine, has a notable track record, having correctly predicted 17 majors including the 2026 Masters and last year's PGA Championship and Open Championship. Despite this history, the simulation results for the Charlotte event reveal surprising deviations from current betting valuations provided via FanDuel. The analysis suggests that while McIlroy is the logical choice, other factors within the field warrant closer examination by bettors and analysts alike.
A significant finding from the simulation is the recommendation to fade Si Woo Kim. Despite Kim's recent form, which includes three top-10 finishes in his past four events and a solo eighth-place finish at this specific course last year, the model does not project him as a top contender. The simulation indicates that his performance this week may not replicate the sizzling second-round 64 he posted at the PGA Championship previously, advising golfers to avoid him in outright or finishing position bets.
In contrast to the advice to fade Kim, the model highlights Adam Scott as a strong value pick at +3500. Although Scott's putting has been inconsistent, the simulation cites his strong metrics in strokes gained: approaching the green, as a primary driver for his inclusion in the projected leaderboard. The model identifies Scott as a golfer to target in both outright and top-five or top-10 finishing position contests, offering a divergent view from his current odds.
Scottie Scheffler, the world number one, is taking a week off and will not be competing this tournament. His absence shifts the focus to the remaining field, where Cameron Young and Xander Schauffele are listed at +950 alongside McIlroy. The model also predicts several longshots, including one player going off around 70-1 who is projected to make a stunning run for the title, though the specific identity of this contender is not disclosed in the available reports.
Betting odds listed are current at the time of reporting and are explicitly noted as subject to change. While the model's methodology involves simulating every PGA Tour event to generate profitable betting picks, projections may not account for unforeseen variables such as weather conditions or sudden injuries. The 2026 Truist Championship continues to be one of the more competitive stretches on the PGA Tour schedule as it approaches the second major of the year.
