CBS Sports identifies six potential FCS upsets to end 125-game Power Four streak

A recent analysis by CBS Sports has identified six potential upsets in the 2026 college football season that could end a 125-game winning streak by Power Four teams over Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) opponents. The report suggests that the widening talent gap, driven by the transfer portal and Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) policies, is creating new vulnerabilities for top-tier programs.

The current streak began in Week 4 of the 2023 season when Sacramento State defeated Stanford. Since then, Power Four teams have maintained a perfect record against FCS competition, with a win rate of 0.991 since the first full year of the NIL era in 2022. This marks a significant shift from the 16 seasons prior, where the win rate stood at 0.952. The analysis notes that the talent drain is accelerating, with proven FCS programs such as North Dakota State and Sacramento State, which is transitioning to the FBS in 2026, leaving the subdivision.

The CBS Sports assessment highlights South Dakota State’s opening matchup against Northwestern as a prime candidate for an upset. Northwestern coach David Braun, who previously served as defensive coordinator at North Dakota State, faces a Jackrabbits team that won back-to-back FCS national championships. South Dakota State returns quarterback Chase Mason and has historically kept Power Four games close, losing two of its last four matchups by a combined 11 points.

Other key matchups identified include Youngstown State visiting Kentucky and North Dakota travelling to Nebraska. The Penguins bring back reigning Walter Payton Award winner Beau Brungard, while the Fighting Hawks feature dual-threat quarterback Jerry Kaminski and All-American edge rusher Lance Rucker. Both teams have shown the ability to challenge Power Four opponents, with North Dakota nearly upsetting Kansas State in 2025 and Youngstown State possessing a quarterback capable of exploiting defensive weaknesses.

The analysis also points to potential vulnerabilities for Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, and West Virginia. Mississippi State could face a fatigued Tennessee Tech side if the Bulldogs struggle through a difficult schedule. Vanderbilt must navigate the loss of quarterback Diego Pavia against Austin Peay, while West Virginia’s roster turnover under Rich Rodriguez introduces uncertainty against Monmouth. These six games represent the highest probability scenarios for ending the drought, given that 11 of the 57 FCS versus Power Four matchups feature a preseason top-25 FCS team.