California jungle primary risks Democratic shutout as Republicans lead polls
Fragmented field of 24 candidates and voter concerns over cost of living create unprecedented scenario in blue stronghold
California’s non-partisan “jungle” primary has created a scenario where Republicans Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco are positioned to advance to the general election, potentially excluding all Democrats from the final ballot. In a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly two to one and have held the governor’s mansion since 2011, the current polling suggests a historic disruption to the state’s political equilibrium.
The Democratic field is fragmented among 24 candidates, with no single frontrunner emerging to consolidate support. Recent polling from Emerson College, conducted on May 13, places US Health Secretary Xavier Becerra in first place with 19 per cent support. Billionaire Tom Steyer is tied with Republican Steve Hilton at 17 per cent, while former Fox News host Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco have consistently ranked at or near the top of the field in earlier surveys.
Voter concerns are dominated by the cost of living and housing affordability, issues that have persisted alongside a multibillion-dollar budget deficit and homelessness crises. Emerson College surveys have identified the economy and housing as the top two voter issues, far outpacing concerns such as healthcare and immigration. Republicans argue that these problems stem from Democratic leadership, while party officials contend that their governance has addressed affordability and public safety.
The jungle primary system, implemented in 2010 via a bipartisan ballot initiative, allows the top two vote-getters to advance to the general election regardless of party affiliation. Moderate Republicans, including former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, championed the system to increase competition and give independent voters a say. A 2023 report by the Unite America Institute found the system reduced uncontested primaries from 80 per cent to under 20 per cent and mitigated political polarisation.
Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks has expressed concern that the system could result in half of the state’s registered voters not having a candidate of their choosing in the general election. Hicks urged candidates to assess their viability in March but refrained from endorsing specific contenders, a stance shared by Governor Gavin Newsom and President Joe Biden. Speculation regarding high-profile entrants such as Kamala Harris, Senator Alex Padilla, and Attorney General Rob Bonta has subsided, with these figures citing current duties or political risk.
The ballot includes candidates who have suspended or abandoned their campaigns, including former state controller Betty Yee and former US Representative Eric Swalwell, who resigned from Congress in April amid sexual misconduct allegations. Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis dropped out last year due to middling support. Despite the crowded field, experts note that the race will likely be decided by candidates who best articulate plans to address the state’s affordability crisis.
