Burnham prepares for perilous Makerfield byelection as Starmer’s future hangs in balance

Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham is preparing to contest the Makerfield byelection, a race allies describe as perilous due to strong support for Reform UK. Polling suggests Burnham is only marginally ahead, despite Reform UK securing over 50% of the vote in recent local elections. The byelection, likely to be held around 18 June, is viewed as critical for the Labour Party and Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Starmer is reportedly considering stepping aside if Burnham wins a clear mandate, though he intends to delay a decision until after the vote. Reform UK is expected to campaign heavily on immigration and Brexit, exploiting internal Labour divisions. Meanwhile, former Health Secretary Wes Streeting has resigned to contest the leadership, advocating for the UK to rejoin the EU, a stance dismissed by Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy.

Burnham is likely to be confirmed as Labour’s candidate later this week, pending applications closing at midday on Monday. If he is the only applicant, the selection process may be expedited, with a formal recommendation from the party’s ruling executive committee expected on Thursday. The vote is anticipated to take place on or around 18 June, providing a four-week sprint before what could prove to be one of the most consequential byelections in British political history. Allies close to Burnham warn that the race is extremely tight, with one source estimating his chances of winning at approximately 45 per cent.

The outcome of the byelection is seen as a potential determinant for the long-term viability of the Labour Party and the immediate political future of Keir Starmer. Burnham has pledged to challenge the prime minister if elected. Starmer spent the weekend at Chequers considering his political future, with allies indicating his position on standing for re-election is softening. While Downing Street has insisted he will stand again if challenged, friends suggest he intends to delay a decision until after the byelection to assess whether he will face a leadership contest and from whom.

Reform UK is expected to campaign heavily on immigration and Brexit, seeking to exploit an escalating row within Labour over whether the UK should seek to rejoin the EU. This issue was highlighted over the weekend when Wes Streeting, another likely leadership rival, argued that Britain’s long-term future lies in rejoining the union. Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy dismissed these comments as “odd”, underscoring the internal tensions. The Liberal Democrats are also testing Labour’s position by laying an amendment to the King’s Speech calling for immediate talks on entering a customs union, a move Starmer has ruled out.

Pollsters note that Burnham’s personal popularity across Greater Manchester gives him an “even shot” of winning, countering the seat’s demographic trends. Luke Tryl, director of the research group More in Common, highlighted the tension between the seat’s demographics, which point to a Reform win, and Burnham’s personal factor. However, Tom Baldwin, Starmer’s biographer, warned that if Burnham adopts hardline stances on immigration or Europe to win the byelection, it may hinder his chances in the subsequent leadership contest, where he will need the support of the party membership.