BitMEX co-founder predicts $1 million Bitcoin following potential AI credit collapse
The veteran trader contends that aggressive data-centre investment and depreciating hardware debt create a bubble larger than the 2008 crisis, while favouring Ethereum for near-term asymmetry.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has issued a stark warning regarding the artificial intelligence sector, predicting that a collapse of the current AI credit bubble could propel Bitcoin to $1 million. In an analysis originally published by TheStreet on 24 June 2026, Hayes argued that the next major rally for the leading cryptocurrency may not stem from crypto-specific catalysts, but rather from the unwinding of speculative excess in the technology sector.
Hayes identified the AI buildout as the primary destination for speculative capital, describing it as the "fastest horse" for investors seeking hedges against currency debasement. He noted that this flight to AI stocks has limited the upside for both Bitcoin and Ethereum in the current cycle. However, he warned that the sector is built on a fragile foundation, citing aggressive spending on data centres, circular revenue arrangements between firms, and debt structures that are misaligned with asset lifespans.
A central concern for Hayes is the financing of graphics processing units, or GPUs. He pointed out that these chips are often financed through multi-year repayment schedules despite depreciating in value much faster than the debt terms allow. This mismatch between hardware depreciation and debt assumptions creates what he termed a structural fault line. Hayes believes that if this imbalance breaks, the resulting credit event will be larger than the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis.
The veteran trader anticipates that regulators will respond to such a collapse with large-scale monetary stimulus. He argued that the ensuing money printing would dwarf the response to the 2008 crisis and serve as a powerful tailwind for Bitcoin. While maintaining a long-term bullish stance on the leading cryptocurrency, Hayes has temporarily parked some capital in Treasury bills while waiting for a more asymmetric market setup.
Despite his conviction in Bitcoin, Hayes currently favours Ethereum as a cleaner investment opportunity. He observed that Bitcoin and Solana have already reclaimed their prior all-time highs, whereas Ethereum remains well below its previous peak. He described Ethereum as a large-scale altcoin that is currently "hated and forgotten," offering greater asymmetry for investors looking for exposure to a battle-tested decentralized network.
Hayes also highlighted Hyperliquid as a structurally strong product for retail traders, noting its round-the-clock markets and built-in leverage features. However, he personally avoids trading with leverage due to the inherent volatility of the asset class. His commentary underscores a broader market shift where traditional financial stressors may soon dictate the trajectory of digital asset prices.
