Betting analysts target Schwarber and Vargas for May 16 home run props
Kyle Schwarber leads the league with 20 home runs, while Jesus Vargas hits a career-best .347, both facing pitchers with recent home run vulnerabilities.
Betting analysts at CBS Sports have identified National League sluggers Kyle Schwarber and Jesus Vargas as the premier home run prop bets for the Major League Baseball slate on Saturday, May 16. With 15 games scheduled for the day, experts have scrutinised player performance metrics and pitching matchups to isolate two standout opportunities for home run props.
Schwarber enters the weekend leading the league with 20 home runs in the 2026 season, following a 56-home run campaign in 2025 that saw him finish as the National League MVP runner-up. The power hitter has demonstrated significant success against right-handed pitching, accounting for 14 of his home runs in that category. His recent form has been particularly sharp, with Schwarber hitting three home runs over the previous two days.
Schwarber’s selection is bolstered by his matchup against Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Bubba Chandler. Chandler has struggled with power recently, allowing six home runs in his last six starts and four in his last four. Notably, four of those home runs surrendered by Chandler have come from left-handed hitters, a demographic that aligns with Schwarber’s strengths.
Jesus Vargas, a 34-year-old switch-hitter in his 10th MLB season, presents a contrasting but equally compelling case. Vargas is currently hitting a league-best .347 with seven home runs, marking a career high for power output. He has established himself as a cornerstone in the lineup, maintaining an OPS of .871 against right-handed pitching despite being more potent from the right side of the plate.
Vargas faces Colorado Rockies pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano at Coors Field, which analysts describe as the most hitter-friendly park in baseball. Sugano has allowed nine home runs this season, including three in his most recent start, providing a favourable environment for Vargas to extend his power numbers.
The analysis highlights the convergence of individual player momentum and specific pitching vulnerabilities. Both Schwarber and Vargas are cited for their strong early-season performance and the statistical likelihood of home runs given their respective opponents’ recent trends.
Sports betting platforms including DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM are promoting these picks, with experts encouraging users to utilise promo codes for new-user offers. The SportsLine Projection Model is also referenced as a resource for further MLB expert picks and predictions for the day’s games.
