Barnwell’s 2026 NFL outlook: Five teams poised for significant record improvement

ESPN analyst Dan Barnwell has released his annual assessment of the National Football League, identifying five franchises most likely to improve their win-loss records in the 2026 season. The selection includes the Kansas City Chiefs, Detroit Lions, New York Giants, New York Jets, and Baltimore Ravens. Barnwell’s analysis suggests that these teams are positioned to outperform their previous campaigns due to a combination of returning from injuries, significant roster upgrades, and favourable schedule strength.

The 2025 season was characterised as notably volatile, with seven teams experiencing record changes of at least six wins, the highest number since 2008. This volatility provides a statistical basis for predicting improvement, as teams that underperform relative to their point differential or turnover margins historically tend to correct course in subsequent seasons. Barnwell notes that since 2017, his annual predictions for improving teams have maintained a high accuracy rate, with the average selected team gaining approximately three and a half games after adjusting for the 17-game schedule.

The Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions are expected to recover from disappointing 2025 campaigns. The Chiefs, who finished 6-11, are predicted to return to the playoffs, with Barnwell noting that their underlying performance metrics remained strong despite a poor record in close games. The Lions, who finished 9-8, are expected to recover from a season plagued by injuries and a league-worst fumble recovery rate, aided by what is projected to be the second-easiest schedule in the league.

The New York Giants and New York Jets are projected to see significant leaps from their respective 4-13 and 3-14 records. Barnwell cites the Giants’ Pythagorean expectation, which suggests they performed at a 7.1-win level in 2025 despite their final record. The Jets are predicted to jump to five or six wins, driven by major defensive roster upgrades and the statistical likelihood of improving from a historic minus-19 turnover margin.

The Baltimore Ravens are expected to compete at the top of the AFC, with Barnwell highlighting the addition of defensive coordinator Jesse Minter and a fifth-easiest projected schedule. The analysis underscores the importance of institutional stability and roster construction in determining whether these teams can translate statistical potential into tangible wins on the field.