Barner backs defensive grind in Knicks-Spurs Game 4 preview
With the series tied 2-2, the expert cites strong defensive metrics and historical trends to predict a low-scoring affair at Madison Square Garden.
SportsLine analyst Mike Barner has released his betting preview for Game 4 of the 2026 NBA Finals, recommending an Under bet on the total points line of 216.5. The prediction comes as the San Antonio Spurs travel to face the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden, with tipoff scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET.
Barner, who is currently on a 143-106 winning streak on NBA picks, highlighted the strong defensive capabilities of both franchises as the primary driver for his selection. During the regular season, the Knicks recorded the fifth-best scoring defence in the league, allowing 110.1 points per game, while the Spurs ranked eighth, permitting 111.5 points per contest.
The analyst noted that the Under has successfully hit in three of the past four head-to-head meetings between the two teams. Additionally, statistical trends show the Under has landed in 53 of the last 100 New York games when the betting line exceeded 205 points. Barner expects defensive intensity to dictate the pace of play in Wednesday’s matchup.
The series is currently level at 2-2 after the Spurs secured a 115-111 victory in Game 3 on Monday night. The road team has now won all three games in the best-of-seven series, with San Antonio holding a 7-3 record on the road in the playoffs. The Knicks’ 13-game postseason winning streak was snapped by the loss, ending their run since their last championship in 1973.
The upcoming game follows a period of disruption surrounding the Finals. Following Game 3, the New York Police Department launched an investigation into an assault on a 39-year-old Spurs supporter in Manhattan. Earlier in the series, two fans were issued lifetime bans from all NBA arenas for storming the court during Game 1 at the Frost Bank Center.
The Knicks enter Game 4 as 2.5-point favourites according to FanDuel Sportsbook odds. Barner’s analysis suggests that despite the home-court advantage, the defensive metrics and historical data favour a lower-scoring game, aligning with his recommendation to bet the Under.
