Arsenal enter Champions League as Opta’s statistical favourites
Arsenal are narrowly ahead of Bayern Munich in Opta’s projections as Paris Saint-Germain pursue a third consecutive title.
The 2026–27 Champions League league phase begins with Arsenal rated the statistical favourites to win the competition, according to figures reported by BBC Sport. Opta gives the Premier League club a 20.4 per cent chance of lifting the trophy, just ahead of Bayern Munich on 20 per cent.
Manchester City are rated at 12.7 per cent, while Paris Saint-Germain’s chances of securing a third successive title are put at 7.3 per cent. PSG would become the first side to achieve the feat since Real Madrid’s run from 2015 to 2018.
BBC Sport’s expert assessment places Arsenal, PSG, Bayern Munich and Barcelona among the leading contenders. Arsenal reached last season’s final for the first time since 2005–06, when they lost to Barcelona. Bayern were beaten by PSG in last season’s semi-finals.
All five English clubs are ranked in Opta’s top 10 for overall win probability and are given more than a 50 per cent chance of reaching the last 16. Liverpool are reported to have the most favourable league-phase draw among the English sides, while Manchester City face the toughest, including matches against Barcelona, PSG and Napoli.
The campaign’s players to watch include Jude Bellingham, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Martin Ødegaard, alongside Harry Kane and Lamine Yamal. BBC Sport will provide highlights through BBC iPlayer, its website and app, with Champions League Match of the Day programming also scheduled.
