Armenia votes on geopolitical pivot as Pashinyan faces Russian pressure and domestic scrutiny

Armenians cast their ballots on Sunday in a parliamentary election that serves as a critical referendum on Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s strategy to reduce the country’s dependence on Russia and deepen integration with the European Union and the United States. The vote takes place against a backdrop of significant regional instability, following Azerbaijan’s 2023 military takeover of the Karabakh region, which resulted in the displacement of most of the Armenian population from the enclave.

Pashinyan has characterised the contest as a binary choice between securing lasting peace with Azerbaijan or facing a return to conflict. He has warned that his Civil Contract party risks a "catastrophic war" within months if it fails to secure a strong majority. The Prime Minister has previously frozen Armenia’s participation in a Russia-led security bloc while pursuing a path toward possible EU membership, a shift that has drawn sharp criticism from Moscow.

Tensions have escalated with allegations of Russian interference, including misinformation campaigns, hacker activity, and economic pressure. The Kremlin recently banned the import of several Armenian products, a move widely interpreted as an attempt to sway the election outcome. Russian President Vladimir Putin has drawn parallels between Armenia’s EU ambitions and the trajectory that led to Ukraine’s conflict, stating that the process began with Ukraine’s attempt to join the European Union.

The opposition, led by billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, has challenged Pashinyan’s Western pivot. Karapetyan, who is currently under house arrest on coup allegations he denies, warned against a "reckless rush" to the West, asserting that Russia remains Armenia’s principal economic partner. His Strong Armenia party is polling second, and he has rejected claims that he intends to drag the country back into Russia’s orbit.

International observers from the OSCE are monitoring the election, which involves nearly 2.5 million eligible voters. The outcome will determine whether Pashinyan can secure the two-thirds parliamentary majority required to pass constitutional amendments demanded by Azerbaijan as a condition for a final peace treaty. The vote also scrutinises Pashinyan’s democratic record eight years after his 2018 revolution, with critics accusing him of democratic backsliding despite his initial promise to dismantle the country’s oligarchic system.