Analyst targets Bears under, Broncos and Bills overs ahead of 2026 NFL season

An NFL handicapper has placed early-season wagers on three teams ahead of the 2026 NFL preseason, recommending specific win total positions for the Chicago Bears, Denver Broncos, and Buffalo Bills. The recommendations include betting under 9.5 wins for the Chicago Bears, citing a challenging schedule and expected regression in turnover statistics. Conversely, the analyst recommends betting over the win totals for the Denver Broncos and Buffalo Bills, highlighting elite coaching, roster depth, and favourable scheduling for Denver, and a strong offensive staff with weak divisional opponents for Buffalo.

The NFL league year has commenced, with the draft concluded and free agency settled, setting the stage for the preseason to begin on 13 August. The analyst’s strategy involves positioning before the influx of training camp news and market adjustments, aiming to secure value on win totals before the betting lines fully reflect incoming reports on player health and contract negotiations.

For the Chicago Bears, the recommendation to bet under 9.5 wins is grounded in a projected sixth-toughest strength of schedule. This marks a significant shift from the previous season, where the Bears won the NFC North despite facing one of the easiest projected schedules, a factor that contributed to their overachievement. The current fixture list requires the Bears to play a first-place schedule of opponents and navigate what is described as the hardest division in the league.

Beyond scheduling, the analyst points to historical volatility in turnover statistics as a key risk factor. The Bears led the NFL last season with a net turnover differential of +22, a metric described as analytically "sticky" and prone to regression to the mean. Additionally, while the team’s skill position players are young, the average age of the roster ranks 10th oldest, raising concerns about veteran durability and performance consistency similar to past regression examples.

In contrast, the Denver Broncos are recommended for an over bet due to elite coaching and significant roster depth. The analyst notes that while the team missed quarterback Bo Nix during the AFC Championship Game last season, backup Jarred Stidham provides a capable alternative. The offensive attack is described as balanced, with running volume split between J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey, and passing targets distributed among Courtland Sutton, Troy Franklin, Jaylen Waddle, and Evan Engram, providing a stable floor for win totals.

The Buffalo Bills are also targeted for an over bet, supported by the promotion of offensive coordinator Joe Brady to head coach and the addition of wide receiver DJ Moore. Brady, who led the Bills to the NFL’s top rushing attack last season, is backed by an experienced staff, fitting a trend of first-time coaches with offensive backgrounds performing well. The Bills have not fallen below 11 wins since Josh Allen’s rookie season in 2018, and their 14th-easiest strength of schedule further supports the projection.

The analyst has also placed wagers on the Bills to win their division at -125 odds and Joe Brady to win Coach of the Year at 11-1 odds. These positions reflect a broader confidence in the structural advantages of the Broncos and Bills compared to the Bears, whose combination of a difficult schedule and statistical regression risks presents a more challenging path to the win total.