Al Jazeera ranks 2026 World Cup groups, identifies favourites to advance

Al Jazeera has published an analysis ranking the 12 groups of the 2026 FIFA World Cup from hardest to easiest, identifying the two teams most likely to automatically qualify from each section. The tournament features a record 48 teams, with the top four ranked nations—Spain, Argentina, France, and England—placed in separate quadrants to avoid meeting until the semifinals. The article highlights Group I as the "group of death," featuring France, Senegal, Norway, and Iraq. Other notable predictions include Brazil and Morocco advancing from their group, while Argentina and Austria are tipped to progress from a draw described as "kind." Co-hosts Mexico, the United States, and Canada are also analysed for their chances of reaching the round of 32.

The expanded tournament structure sees 12 seeded teams spread across the groups, including the three host nations and eight top-ranked countries. FIFA confirmed that the four highest-ranked nations were placed in separate sections of a new tennis-style seeded bracket. This arrangement ensures that if these teams finish first in their respective round-robin groups, they will avoid each other until the semifinals. The top two teams from each group will automatically proceed to the round of 32, where they will be joined by the eight best third-placed sides.

Group I is identified as the toughest pool, with the four teams having the highest average FIFA ranking. France, one of the favourites to lift the title, will look to make their third consecutive final appearance, while Senegal is considered one of the strongest African nations. Erling Haaland’s Norway are viewed as dark horses, and Iraq, who faced the most games to qualify, are expected to be no pushovers. Al Jazeera picks France and Senegal as the favourites for automatic qualification.

In contrast, Group H is described as a "kind" draw for the defending champions. Argentina are tipped to emerge as group winners, with Austria and Algeria closely matched for second place. Jordan, making their debut, are noted as difficult opponents having scored 32 goals in qualifying. Meanwhile, Group J presents a challenge for co-hosts Mexico, who will lean on home advantage. South Korea, the only side unbeaten in Asian qualifying, are expected to battle for second spot with the Czech Republic.

The analysis also notes significant geopolitical and competitive variables in other pools. Group K is described as comfortable for Belgium, but Iran’s preparations are noted as chaotic due to the US-Israel war on their country. In Group L, the United States are the top-ranked team at number 16, with coach Mauricio Pochettino expected to guide them through a competitive group alongside Turkiye. Group M, with the lowest average FIFA ranking of 42, sees Switzerland and co-hosts Canada as the primary qualifiers, with Bosnia and Herzegovina and Qatar also eyeing an upset.