A'ja Wilson poised for historic third straight WNBA MVP
With the regular season more than three-quarters complete, Las Vegas Aces centre A'ja Wilson is the overwhelming favourite to secure a third consecutive MVP award, despite challenges from Olivia Miles and Caitlin Clark.
Las Vegas Aces centre A'ja Wilson is positioned to claim her third consecutive WNBA MVP award, a feat that would make her the only player in league history to win the honour three years in a row. Betting markets list Wilson as the overwhelming favourite at -1100, reflecting a season in which she is averaging 25.9 points, 9.5 rebounds and two blocks per game. Her performance has placed her at the top of the league in scoring, blocks, win shares and RAPM, cementing her status as the dominant individual force in the competition.
The regular season is more than three-quarters complete, with the league set to pause from 31 August to 16 September for the 2026 FIBA World Cup. This schedule leaves just over two weeks of regular season action before the break, a window that may be insufficient for any challenger to close the gap. Wilson is on pace to record the second-highest single-season scoring average in WNBA history, trailing only her own mark of 26.9 points per game set in 2024. She has also recorded 11 games with 30 or more points, leading the league and tying the fourth-most in a single season.
Minnesota Lynx guard Olivia Miles presents the strongest alternative case, having led the league's best team to a record that is four games ahead of every other side. Miles is averaging 19.9 points, 4.7 rebounds and 6.2 assists, leading all rookies in scoring, assists, steals and three-pointers. Her impact is evident in the advanced statistics, where she ranks third in win shares and RAPM. The Lynx have significantly exceeded expectations despite losing six rotation players during the offseason and the absence of Napheesa Collier until late July.
Indiana Fever guard Caitlin Clark offers a different profile, leading the league in assists with 8.3 per game while averaging a career-high 21.7 points. Clark is the first player in WNBA history to lead the league in assists while finishing in the top three in scoring. However, her campaign has been marked by inconsistency, including multiple shooting slumps and a back injury that kept her out for several weeks. The Fever have a better net rating with Clark off the court, a statistical anomaly that may weigh on her MVP credentials despite her historic playmaking.
The Las Vegas Aces currently sit in third place with a 25-13 record, a position that supports Wilson's candidacy given the historical precedent that MVP winners typically play for top-four teams. The Aces have the easiest remaining schedule in the league, with an opponent winning percentage of .273, which may help them secure a higher playoff seed. Wilson has scored more than one-fourth of the Aces' points this season, carrying the team on both sides of the ball even as their overall performance has fluctuated since the All-Star break.
While Wilson's consistency makes a sudden drop in production unlikely, the race is not technically over. For a challenger to overtake her, they would need to play exceptionally well in the final weeks to boost their numbers and make a statement to voters. However, with Wilson's historic statistical output and the Aces' favourable remaining schedule, the path to a third consecutive MVP appears firmly in her control.
