Agents predict Gibbs and Robinson to reset NFL running back market

NFL agents are anticipating a substantial recalibration of the running back market, with Detroit Lions’ Jahmyr Gibbs and Atlanta Falcons’ Bijan Robinson projected to become the first players at the position to average $25 million per year. This forecast follows Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley’s 2025 two-year, $41.2 million extension, which established a new benchmark of $20.6 million annually. The potential jump represents a 21.36 per cent increase over Barkley’s average annual salary, signalling a dramatic shift in how the league values dual-threat backs.

Both Gibbs and Robinson are regarded as elite talents, with Robinson leading the NFL in yards from scrimmage in 2025 with 2,298 yards, a mark that ranks as the 12th-best single-season total in league history. He also earned first-team All-Pro honours for the first time. Gibbs recorded the fifth-most yards from scrimmage in 2025 with 1,839 yards and secured Pro Bowl selection on the original ballot for a second consecutive year. Their statistical output has positioned them as the primary candidates to reset the financial floor for the position.

Gibbs is expected to secure a new contract sooner than Robinson, largely due to differing organisational philosophies regarding first-round picks. The Detroit Lions have a recent track record of extending first-round selections earlier than their counterparts, having signed offensive tackle Penei Sewell and wide receiver Jameson Williams to new deals after their third seasons. In contrast, the Atlanta Falcons typically delay extensions until a player’s fourth year, as seen with Chris Lindstrom, A.J. Terrell, and Drake London.

The Lions’ proactive approach is further evidenced by edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson’s extension during the middle of his fourth year. With David Montgomery traded to the Houston Texans, head coach Dan Campbell has acknowledged Gibbs as the team’s bell cow. Campbell’s public comments describing Gibbs as an offensive weapon rather than just a runner are expected to be leveraged by agents during negotiations to justify a premium valuation.

While a $25 million annual average may be ambitious for the current year, the structural changes in the salary cap suggest a rising floor. The NFL salary cap is projected to reach at least $301.2 million in the current environment, with estimates suggesting a 6.24 per cent increase to $320 million by 2027. Agents note that previous market resets have seen average increases of 11.2 per cent, and the fully guaranteed compensation in these upcoming deals is expected to significantly exceed the $36 million guaranteed at signing in Barkley’s contract.