2026 PGA Championship betting market shifts as expert favours Scheffler over Rahm

The betting market for the 2026 PGA Championship has coalesced around Scottie Scheffler as the primary contender, with elite handicapper Brady Kannon identifying the defending champion as the +480 favourite to secure his second consecutive title. Kannon, who possesses over three decades of experience in the industry and has correctly identified six PGA winners since 2025, has released his best bets for the tournament commencing on Thursday, 14 May, at Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania.

While Scheffler enters the field following his five-stroke victory over Harris English, Bryson DeChambeau, and Davis Riley at the 2025 event, Kannon is explicitly advising against backing Jon Rahm. The expert is fading the two-time major champion in both outright and head-to-head wagers, noting that Rahm's current price of 15-1 at FanDuel may drift higher as the tournament approaches. This recommendation marks a divergence from the odds board, where Rahm remains a top five selection despite the expert's caution.

Kannon cites significant off-course issues as the primary catalyst for his decision to avoid Rahm. Specifically, the expert points to the fallout from the LIV circuit and the controversies surrounding Rahm's negotiations to return to the DP World Tour. He argues that these distractions have negatively impacted the golfer's preparation, a sentiment he suggests was evident at The Masters and has since escalated. The expert contends that such external noise is detrimental when attempting to prepare for a major championship.

The analysis also draws heavily on Rahm's historical performance data at the specific venue. Kannon highlights that Rahm finished 24th at Aronimink during his 2018 visit and has never competed at the Detroit Golf Club, which hosts the event. Furthermore, the expert notes a pattern of below-average finishes in recent Tour Championships at East Lake, where Rahm has only secured a top-five finish twice in seven trips.

In contrast to the cautious outlook on Rahm, the betting landscape presents a strong case for Scheffler, who is currently the +480 favourite. Other notable contenders listed in the FanDuel odds include Rory McIlroy at +850 and Cameron Young at +1200. The full field of 156 players is set to compete on the par-70, 7,394-yard course, though Kannon's specific sleeper pick and detailed prop bets remain exclusive to his SportsLine platform.

This expert assessment arrives amidst a broader analytical debate regarding the defending champion. CBS Sports analysts previously utilised six statistical trends to narrow the field, a methodology that notably excluded Scheffler from their shortlist due to his dominant performance in 2025. This creates a distinct contrast between the statistical models used by some analysts and the betting market, which has positioned the world number one as the clear favourite for the Wanamaker Trophy.