Yahoo Finance analyst favours Rocket Lab over SpaceX ahead of historic IPO
With SpaceX’s target $2 trillion valuation drawing criticism for its high multiple and significant net losses, a recent Yahoo Finance analysis suggests investors may find better value in Rocket Lab, which offers a simpler business model and projected profitability by 2028.
A Yahoo Finance article published on 7 June 2026 advises investors to purchase shares in Rocket Lab (RKLB) rather than participate in the upcoming initial public offering (IPO) of SpaceX. The analysis characterises SpaceX’s target $2 trillion valuation as excessively high, citing a multiple of 107 times last year’s sales and significant financial losses, including a $4.3 billion net loss in the first quarter of 2026 and substantial deficits in its xAI division. Conversely, the article portrays Rocket Lab as having a more reasonable valuation, faster growth trajectory, and a simpler business model.
The piece argues that SpaceX’s target valuation of $2 trillion represents a "bubbly" multiple of 107 times last year's sales, exacerbated by significant losses in its space and AI divisions, including xAI. In contrast, Rocket Lab is portrayed as having a more reasonable valuation, faster growth trajectory, and a simpler business model without cash-burning AI operations. The article notes SpaceX’s net loss of $4.3 billion in the first quarter of 2026 and highlights Rocket Lab’s projected revenue growth and expected profitability by 2028.
Rocket Lab’s market capitalisation stands at $64 billion, trading at 62 times last year’s sales, with analysts projecting revenue growth of 38% compound annually from 2025 to 2028 and GAAP profitability by 2028. The SpaceX IPO is described as being two times oversubscribed, with up to 30% of shares allocated to retail investors.
Rocket Lab competes directly with SpaceX’s space division, having launched its Electron rocket 88 times and planning to launch the heavier-payload Neutron rocket by the end of the year. The company has secured contracts from major customers including NASA, the U.S. Space Development Agency, and Capella Space. In 2025, Rocket Lab’s revenue rose 38% to $602 million, though its net loss widened from $190 million to $198 million.
The Motley Fool, which published the original analysis, discloses it has positions in and recommends BlackSky Technology and Rocket Lab. The article suggests that while Rocket Lab’s stock has risen nearly 60% this year, it remains a more reasonable long-term buy compared to the volatile debut expected for SpaceX.
