Wheat futures slide as crude oil drops and USDA data shows mixed export trends
Chicago Soft Red Winter and Kansas City Hard Red Winter contracts fell sharply on Friday, weighed down by falling energy costs and pre-weekend profit-taking, despite strong new crop demand from Asian and Latin American buyers.
Wheat futures experienced a broad decline across most contracts on Friday, with Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) contracts falling between 10 and 13 cents and Kansas City Hard Red Winter (KC HRW) contracts dropping between 12 and 15.5 cents. The sell-off was driven by a combination of macroeconomic headwinds, including a $1.14 per barrel drop in crude oil prices, alongside pre-weekend profit-taking and geopolitical developments involving US President Joe Biden reviewing a proposed agreement with Iran.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released export sales data that presented a divergent picture for the market. Old crop sales recorded net cancellations of 807,348 metric tonnes, marking a yearly low, with significant reductions attributed to Japan, Panama, and Mexico. Conversely, new crop sales reached 1.058 million metric tonnes, a yearly high that was 48.66 per cent above the same week last year, led by substantial purchases from Japan, the Philippines, and Mexico.
Market positioning data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) indicated a shift in trader sentiment. Managed money increased net short positions in CBOT wheat by 13,907 contracts as of Tuesday, bringing the total net short to 18,706 contracts. Simultaneously, spec funds reduced their net long positions in KC wheat by 3,205 contracts, lowering the total to 26,870 contracts.
Closing prices reflected the downward pressure across major exchanges. July 2026 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.10 1/2, down 13 1/2 cents, while September 2026 CBOT Wheat settled at $6.23 1/2, also down 13 1/2 cents. In Kansas City, July 2026 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.49 3/4, down 15 1/2 cents, and September 2026 KCBT Wheat settled at $6.61 1/2, down 15 1/4 cents. Minneapolis spring wheat also declined, with July contracts falling 25 3/4 cents on the week.
Beyond the immediate price action, broader agricultural context included Russia’s agriculture ministry estimating wheat exports at 50 million metric tonnes for the 2025/26 season. Additionally, FranceAgriMer reported a 3 per cent drop in ratings for the French wheat crop, which stood at 78 per cent good to excellent.
