Waste Management earnings beat as Wall Street maintains buy consensus despite stock lag

Waste Management delivered first-quarter fiscal 2026 results that surpassed analyst expectations, posting revenue of $6.23 billion, a 3.5 per cent increase year-on-year. Adjusted earnings per share reached $1.81, up 8.4 per cent from the prior-year quarter, while adjusted operating EBITDA rose 5.9 per cent to $1.85 billion. The company’s core Collection and Disposal segment remained the primary growth driver, supported by strong pricing execution and favourable price-to-cost spreads.

Despite the positive earnings report, Waste Management shares have significantly underperformed the broader market over the past 52 weeks. The stock has declined 2.7 per cent during this period, contrasting sharply with the S&P 500 Index, which rallied 26.5 per cent. On a year-to-date basis, Waste Management shares are down 1.5 per cent, compared to an 8.8 per cent gain for the S&P 500. The stock has also trailed the State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund, which rose 22.9 per cent over the past year.

Wall Street analysts maintain a moderately bullish consensus on the stock, with a mean price target of $257.64. This average implies a 19 per cent premium to the stock’s current price levels. Among the 28 analysts covering the stock, the rating breakdown includes 18 Strong Buy ratings, one Moderate Buy, and nine Holds. The consensus reflects continued confidence in the company’s long-term outlook and management’s reasonable guidance for 2026.

TD Cowen updated its view on the stock on April 29, raising its price target from $270 to $275 while maintaining a Buy rating. The revision follows the company’s April 28 earnings release, which saw shares jump 1.3 per cent in the subsequent trading session. Analysts note that the company’s adjusted operating EBITDA margins expanded by 70 basis points to 29.8 per cent, highlighting operational efficiency improvements.

Looking ahead to the fiscal year ending December 2026, analysts expect adjusted EPS to grow 8.7 per cent year-on-year to $8.15. Waste Management’s earnings surprise history has been mixed, with the company topping consensus estimates in two of the last four quarters. The company, which serves residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal customers across the United States and Canada, currently holds a market capitalisation of $87.4 billion.