USC fans wary of 24-team College Football Playoff seeding
Under a proposed 24-team model, USC could enter as a No. 16 seed, a scenario critics argue feels like a "charity case" rather than a significant achievement.
USC football fans are expressing concern that the proposed expansion of the College Football Playoff to 24 teams may diminish the prestige of the tournament and the regular season. Analysis suggests that under a 24-team model, USC could be seeded as low as 16th, potentially playing an opening-round away game, whereas a top-10 seed would ensure a home opener and greater prestige. The expansion is criticised for devaluing rivalry games and allowing teams with multiple losses to qualify, thereby reducing the stakes of crucial matchups.
A hypothetical scenario based on ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s analysis of the 2025 CFP rankings suggests USC could be seeded No. 16 with a 9-3 record in a 24-team field. Under this model, conference title games would be eliminated, and USC would face a No. 1 seed, such as Ohio State, in an away game in the opening round. The analysis contrasts this with the current 12-team format, arguing that the expansion would have allowed teams like Michigan, Alabama, Oklahoma, Texas, and Vanderbilt to qualify comfortably despite losses or poor performances in rivalry games.
The debate centres on whether the expansion devalues rivalry games and allows teams with multiple losses to qualify, potentially reducing the stakes of crucial regular-season matchups. In the current 12-team system, higher seeds receive home-field advantage in the first round, while lower seeds play away. The 24-team model eliminates conference championship games, with the top 10 seeds receiving byes and home games, while seeds 11-24 play in the opening round.
Analysis indicates that under the 24-team model, teams would average 46.0 combined losses, or nearly two losses per team. Only two rivalry games, Arizona vs Arizona State and Virginia vs Virginia Tech, would have been enhanced by the 24-team model, while five or six others, including marquee matchups, would have been diminished. USC is a major programme with high expectations, and fans typically view a top-10 seed as a significant achievement, whereas a lower seed may be seen as less prestigious.
The CFP selection committee has historically been cautious about ranking mid-major teams highly, which may impact how teams like North Texas or Iowa are seeded. The article notes that teams in such a large field would average 46.0 combined losses, or nearly two losses per team. The expansion is criticised for devaluing rivalry games and allowing teams with multiple losses to qualify, thereby reducing the stakes of crucial matchups.
