US stocks edge higher as markets await expected Fed rate rise
US equity futures rose modestly ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, while elevated Treasury yields, oil prices and renewed cryptocurrency weakness kept investors cautious.
US stock futures edged higher on 16 September as investors awaited an expected Federal Reserve interest-rate increase, widely seen as the first rise in three years. Dow futures rose 0.1%, S&P 500 futures gained 0.2% and Nasdaq-100 futures advanced 0.4% in premarket trading, according to Yahoo Finance.
The moves followed a 0.5% fall in the S&P 500 in the previous session, its second consecutive daily decline. The 10-year US Treasury yield was reported at its highest level since 2007, adding pressure to equities as investors assessed the outlook for borrowing costs.
Oil prices remained another source of concern. Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude futures stayed above US$100 a barrel, sustaining worries that inflation could remain persistent.
Traders assigned a 92% probability to a rate rise, according to CME Group. The Federal Reserve was due to release its decision and updated dot plot, followed by a press conference. August retail sales and the NAHB housing-market index were also scheduled for release.
Bitcoin fell below US$76,000, while crypto-related shares including Robinhood and Coinbase also declined. The weakness followed a 49–50 Senate vote against advancing the proposed Clarity Act beyond debate, stalling progress on a cryptocurrency regulatory framework.
Historical analysis cited by The Kobeissi Letter found that the S&P 500 had fallen by an average of 4% in the six weeks after seven first-rate-hike episodes since 1988, before recovering on average. The small sample does not establish how markets will respond to the expected decision.
