UCL Policy Lab report warns Starmer alienates progressive base ahead of May local elections
With only 13 per cent of progressive voters open to voting Labour, Downing Street faces a potential leadership challenge if the party delivers poor results in Thursday's polls
A report by UCL's Policy Lab, utilising research from senior pollster Stan Greenberg, indicates that Prime Minister Keir Starmer is alienating progressive voters due to a perceived lack of strong values and vision. The findings suggest Labour is bracing for poor results in the upcoming May local elections, potentially triggering a leadership challenge within the party.
While Starmer's criticism of Donald Trump and focus on climate change are viewed positively, voters feel he has failed to articulate core progressive values regarding public services, taxation, and democracy. The report highlights a deep personal animosity towards the Prime Minister and notes that only a small fraction of progressive voters remain open to voting Labour.
Specific polling findings reveal that only 13 per cent to 15 per cent of progressive voters are open to voting Labour, compared with just 2 per cent of Reform UK voters. The report notes that while closer ties with the EU are desired by progressives, they are insufficient without a more explicit declaration of values and radicalism on public services.
Potential leadership contenders Andy Burnham, Wes Streeting, and Angela Rayner have been briefed on the research. The report notes that while closer ties with the EU are desired by progressives, they are insufficient without a more explicit declaration of values and radicalism on public services. Voters expressed a desire for a stronger values-based opposition to Donald Trump, similar to approaches seen in Canada and Spain, rather than just technocratic criticism.
The May elections involve approximately 5,000 local council seats across 136 councils and six mayoral contests, marking the most significant test for the Starmer-led government since the 2024 general election. The UCL Policy Lab's Marc Stears noted that Starmer entered office on a wave of frustration with politics as usual, but voters now feel frustration with his tenure.
Polling data shows Starmer is currently viewed negatively by three-quarters of voters, a figure comparable to former leader Jeremy Corbyn. The research suggests that the party and politics able to tap more effectively into the core values of their potential supporters might do better in this newly polarised age.