Trump’s Texas Endorsement Sparks White House Anxiety Over Midterm Fallout

President Donald Trump has officially thrown his support behind Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Republican Senate primary runoff, a move that has triggered immediate concern among White House strategists regarding the upcoming midterms. The endorsement, announced just one week before the May 26 election, comes after Trump cited that Paxton has “gone through a lot,” referencing the attorney general’s extensive legal and personal controversies. The late timing of the announcement caught several White House aides by surprise, highlighting internal tensions as the administration attempts to secure its legislative agenda.

Paxton’s record includes a 2023 impeachment charge, a 2024 plea deal involving $300,000 in restitution to avoid a felony securities fraud trial, and a 2025 adultery accusation from his wife. Despite these issues, many in Washington now expect Paxton to defeat incumbent Senator John Cornyn. Republican strategists fear that Paxton’s controversial history could serve as a mobilising force for Democratic voters, potentially allowing Democratic candidate James Talarico to emulate Beto O’Rourke’s 2018 fundraising success. This dynamic could force Republicans to divert significant financial resources to Texas, draining funds from other vulnerable races nationwide.

The political stakes extend beyond campaign finance to the delicate balance of power in the US Senate, where Republicans hold a narrow 53-47 majority. There are growing fears that Senator Cornyn may become disaffected if he loses the primary, mirroring the behaviour of Senator Bill Cassidy, who has already voiced opposition to Trump’s legislative priorities following his defeat in Louisiana. With Cassidy and a potential dissident Cornyn, only two additional Republican defections would be required to block Trump’s use of congressional funds for domestic projects or military action in Iran.

Internal rifts within the Trump orbit have also surfaced, with former campaign co-chief Chris LaCivita and pollster Tony Fabrizio working on Cornyn’s campaign. In contrast, Corey Lewandowski declared the Cornyn campaign “dead” shortly after the endorsement, underscoring the fractured nature of the party’s elite support. As the White House tracks the final week of campaigning in Texas, it is simultaneously monitoring other critical races that could reshape the political landscape before November.

In California, strategists are watching the June 2 gubernatorial primary for signs that Republican Steve Hilton could advance to the general election due to a fragmented Democratic field. Without endorsements from Governor Gavin Newsom or former Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic race has been marred by controversies involving frontrunners Xavier Becerra, Katie Porter, and Tom Steyer. Meanwhile, in Maine, the White House is tracking the June 9 Senate primary between Graham Platner and incumbent Susan Collins, viewing Platner’s performance as a bellwether for the broader midterm dynamics and the potential retention of the Republican majority.