Trump signals final decision on Iran deal as oil retreats on ceasefire hopes
Financial markets rallied and crude prices fell as Donald Trump indicated he was nearing a resolution on a potential agreement to extend a ceasefire with Iran, though key terms remain undefined.
US President Donald Trump has stated he is nearing a final determination on a potential deal with Iran to extend a ceasefire, specifically seeking an agreement that guarantees unrestricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The indication, reportedly issued via Truth Social, outlines specific demands for pausing hostilities between the two nations, though the statement did not clarify which of Trump’s stipulated conditions are currently incorporated into active negotiations.
The diplomatic signal triggered significant movement in global financial markets. On 29 May 2026, US equities surged, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average briefly surpassing 51,000 points. The rally was driven by investor expectations of progress in US-Iran talks, reflecting the market’s sensitivity to geopolitical stability and the potential for de-escalation in a region critical to global energy supplies.
Concurrently, crude oil prices retreated as reports emerged of a tentative 60-day ceasefire extension. Brent crude fell below $93 a barrel, marking an 18 per cent decline for the month, while West Texas Intermediate traded near $88. The potential agreement has raised hopes for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for global energy logistics, although the status of the extension remains pending final confirmation and the President’s signature.
It remains unclear which specific conditions stipulated by Trump are part of the current negotiation framework. The Financial Times notes that while the President has indicated he is close to a final decision, the precise parameters of the deal are not yet defined. This ambiguity underscores the speculative nature of the recent market reactions, which are based on hopes of a deal rather than a confirmed agreement.
The development follows broader geopolitical tensions involving trade, artificial intelligence, and Iran, including recent summits between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. As negotiations continue, investors will be monitoring whether the tentative ceasefire extension gains traction and whether the demands for unrestricted maritime traffic can be formalised into a binding arrangement.
