Trump endorses Paxton in Texas Senate run-off, risking Senate relations
The endorsement follows a tight primary contest and raises concerns about Democratic competitiveness in the general election.
United States President Donald Trump has formally endorsed Texas State Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Republican Senate run-off against incumbent John Cornyn. The announcement, made via Truth Social, highlights Paxton’s loyalty to the MAGA movement while criticising Cornyn for a lack of support during “times were tough”. The move follows a directive in March where Trump stated that candidates without his backing should withdraw from the race.
The run-off is scheduled for May 26, following an early March primary where neither candidate secured the clear majority required to clinch the nomination under Texas law. Texas utilises open primaries, allowing voters to participate in a party’s primary provided they pledge to vote exclusively for that party. Despite Paxton’s historical standing as the favourite for the nomination, the contest has proven tighter than anticipated.
Recent polling data presents a mixed picture of the Republican contest. A poll by Texans for a Conservative Majority, aligned with Cornyn, showed the incumbent leading by one point. In contrast, a poll by Lone Star Liberty PAC, backed by a pro-Paxton Super PAC, indicated Paxton leading by 11 points. An independent poll from the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs placed Paxton ahead by three points.
Concerns regarding the general election have surfaced within the party. Texas State Representative Matt Shaheen described Paxton as a “disaster for Texas conservatives”. Polling suggests Democrat James Talarico is competitive or favoured against either Republican. A poll from the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center found Talarico tied with Paxton and leading Cornyn by one point, while a University of Texas poll showed Talarico winning by seven points against Cornyn and eight against Paxton.
Analysts warn the endorsement may strain relationships with Senate leadership. Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University, noted that the decision could alienate Senate Republicans, particularly Majority Leader John Thune, who had lobbied for Cornyn. Jones added that a defeated Cornyn may have little incentive to support the Trump administration during his final seven months in office, potentially impacting legislative dynamics in a chamber where Republicans hold a narrow majority.
