TD Securities and Scotiabank diverge on Nutrien outlook following record Q1 volumes
TD Securities maintains a Buy rating but cuts its target, citing phosphate margin pressure, while Scotiabank raises its target to $80 despite nitrogen risks.
TD Securities and Scotiabank have issued contrasting analyst perspectives on Nutrien Ltd. following the company’s first-quarter 2026 financial results. The divergence highlights the complex dynamics facing the global fertiliser producer as it navigates shifting margin pressures and supply chain adjustments.
TD Securities lowered its price target for Nutrien to $83 from $86, though it maintained a Buy rating on the stock. The firm’s caution stems from expected pressure on phosphate margins during the second quarter. Despite this near-term headwind, the analyst firm reiterated its positive stance on the broader investment case.
Conversely, Scotiabank raised its price target to $80 from $75, adopting a Sector Perform rating. The bank expressed increased positivity on the stock, noting that the company’s operational improvements outweigh the near-term risks associated with nitrogen prices and ongoing regional challenges affecting grower economics.
Nutrien reported record potash sales volumes in the first quarter of 2026, a result bolstered by stronger performance in its Nitrogen and Retail segments. President and CEO Ken Seitz highlighted that the company increased production at its low-cost North American facilities and strengthened its supply chain to meet demand as global fertiliser markets tightened.
Seitz noted that these operational efforts, alongside steps to simplify operations and improve capital efficiency, have contributed to a more resilient portfolio. The company, which operates across four segments including Nutrien Ag Solutions, Potash, Nitrogen, and Phosphate, currently offers an annual dividend yield of 3.18%.
