Starmer’s aides war-game leadership contest as Burnham prepares Makerfield bid

Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s inner circle is actively preparing for a potential leadership contest against Andy Burnham, who is expected to contest the Makerfield byelection and return to Westminster. Downing Street sources indicate the Prime Minister has spent the last fortnight seriously considering his future but is now “hellbent” on fighting any challenge. His team is reportedly “war-gaming” various scenarios to secure his position, including the possibility of dismissing cabinet ministers who publicly support Burnham, such as Rachel Reeves, Ed Miliband, and Shabana Mahmood.

While Starmer remains defiant, allies acknowledge that his political future may ultimately be out of his hands. One loyalist minister noted that while the Prime Minister is determined to fight, “when the herd moves, it moves.” There is an understanding that Starmer is self-aware enough to stand aside if he believes Labour cannot win the next general election with him at the helm, though insiders insist he has not yet reached that conclusion. Burnham has indicated he would join any leadership contest if he wins the byelection, though he has not explicitly ruled out challenging Starmer directly.

The political tension is underscored by recent polling and internal party sentiment. A YouGov poll of party members suggests 59% would back Burnham against Starmer, with only 37% supporting the Prime Minister’s retention of the role. This follows Labour’s poor performance in recent local elections, which prompted several cabinet ministers to urge Starmer to consider his future. Despite the pressure, Starmer has warned MPs that lowering the threshold for deposing a Prime Minister would make Labour “just like the Tories,” arguing that such contests would paralyse the government’s ability to deliver its agenda.

Tactics within the Prime Minister’s office appear to be shifting towards a more combative stance. One senior aide compared Starmer’s approach to “Harry Truman” rather than “Joe Biden,” implying a willingness to fight rather than step aside gracefully. There are also reports of a “scorched earth” strategy involving cuts to departmental capital budgets to fund increased defence spending, a move some ministers fear could damage Starmer’s legacy and growth strategy. Critics suggest the upcoming implementation of a social media ban for under-16s may be an attempt to secure his legacy in power.

Communication between the two leaders is reportedly non-existent due to a lack of trust, and Starmer is unlikely to campaign for Burnham in the byelection. However, Steve Reed, a loyal cabinet minister, suggested Starmer might offer Burnham a government job if he wins, describing him as a “talented politician.” Despite these overtures, sources claim there are no channels of communication between the pair. As the byelection approaches, the Labour Party remains divided, with Starmer’s team preparing for a battle that may be decided by party sentiment rather than the Prime Minister’s own volition.