Spurs host Thunder in critical Game 4 of Western Conference Finals
Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs face elimination pressure as the Thunder hold a 2-1 advantage ahead of Sunday’s matchup at the Frost Bank Center.
The San Antonio Spurs welcome the Oklahoma City Thunder to the Frost Bank Center for Game 4 of the 2026 NBA Western Conference Finals, aiming to prevent a 3-1 series deficit. The Thunder currently hold a 2-1 advantage following their 123-108 victory in Game 3, a result that marked the first time since mid-January that San Antonio suffered consecutive defeats.
Oklahoma City established their series edge in Game 1 with a convincing win, maintaining control throughout the second half and outperforming the Spurs in every shooting metric, including percentages and total points. Despite being the smaller team, the Thunder also outrebounded San Antonio, with Victor Wembanyama recording only four rebounds in that contest.
Wembanyama’s rebounding struggles in Game 1 stand in stark contrast to his performance in San Antonio’s sole win of the series, where he recorded 41 points and 24 rebounds. The Spurs must find a way to contain Oklahoma City’s bench production, particularly from Jaylin Williams, Alex Caruso, and Jared McCain, who combined for significant scoring output in the previous game.
Historical data underscores the stakes for the home side. Teams that fall behind 3-1 in the Conference Finals have only a 7 per cent probability of winning the series. However, that figure rises to 82 per cent if the Spurs can even the series at 2-2 with a victory on Sunday.
Betting markets view the upcoming contest as a tight affair, listing the Spurs as slight favourites at -150 with a 57 per cent win probability, while the Thunder are priced at +125. A SportsLine projection model, which simulates the game 10,000 times, suggests an Under on the total points line, noting that the Under has landed in 26 of San Antonio’s last 47 home games.
Injury updates add complexity to the Oklahoma City lineup, with AJ Mitchell ruled out due to a calf injury. The Spurs have not lost three games in a row all season and will look to leverage their home-court advantage to level the series.
