SportsLine models project Wembanyama edge in NBA Finals opener

Game 1 of the 2026 NBA Finals is scheduled for Wednesday evening, with the San Antonio Spurs hosting the New York Knicks at 8:30 p.m. ET. As the series begins, SportsLine experts and projection models have released player prop picks for the contest, with the Spurs currently favoured by 4.5 points at home.

The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, projects Spurs centre Victor Wembanyama to score an average of 29.4 points. This projection exceeds his over/under line of 27.5 points. Wembanyama was instrumental in San Antonio’s series win over the Thunder, averaging 27.3 points, 10.9 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 2.7 blocks per game during the Western Conference Finals.

Former Vegas bookmaker Micah Roberts recommends backing Knicks guard Jalen Brunson to make over 2.5 three-point field goals. Roberts cites Brunson’s 44.8% three-point shooting rate in the series against the Philadelphia 76ers, noting that Brunson made five of 12 shots from beyond the arc in a December meeting where the Spurs won 134-132.

SportsLine expert Prop Bet Guy suggests targeting Spurs forward Julian Champagnie for catch-and-shoot opportunities. The analysis points to the Knicks allowing the third-highest catch-and-shoot frequency in the regular season at 34.5%, a rate they are maintaining at 33% in the playoffs. Champagnie is expected to benefit from this defensive strategy, particularly as the Knicks may choose to "hide" Brunson defensively against the Spurs' big man.

The SportsLine Projection Model enters the 2026 NBA Finals on a 26-10 record, representing a 72% success rate on top-rated NBA spread picks this season. The model has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight-plus seasons.