SportsLine models project Thunder as favourites in Western Conference finals opener
Oklahoma City Thunder host San Antonio Spurs in Game 1, with Jalen Williams returning from injury and De'Aaron Fox listed as questionable.
The Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs are set to open the 2026 NBA Western Conference Finals on Monday at the Paycom Center. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET, with the Thunder, who finished the regular season with a 64-18 record, projected as 6.5-point favourites by the SportsLine computer model.
The matchup carries significant weight given the regular season history, where San Antonio won four of five meetings against Oklahoma City. However, the Thunder’s current form and roster availability may shift the dynamic. SportsLine’s projection model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, has entered the second week of the second round of the 2026 playoffs with a 26-9 record, or 74%, on top-rated NBA spread picks.
A key variable for the Thunder is the return of forward Jalen Williams, who is listed as available for Game 1 after missing the last six games with a left hamstring strain. Williams averaged 20.5 points in two postseason appearances this season and 21.4 points during the playoffs last year. The SportsLine model predicts he will score over 15.5 points, projecting 18.0 points for the opener.
Conversely, SportsLine expert Prop Bet Guy recommends the under on Chet Holmgren’s combined points, rebounds, and assists line of 26.5. The expert cited Holmgren’s historical struggles against San Antonio’s length and low usage in previous matchups, noting that Holmgren finished under this line in all four regular season games against the Spurs.
On the Spurs’ side, expert Mike Barner recommends the over on Dylan Harper’s points line of 10.5. Barner pointed to Harper’s recent scoring form, averaging 14.7 points against the Timberwolves, and suggested increased playing time if guards Stephon Castle or De'Aaron Fox encounter foul trouble. De'Aaron Fox is currently listed as questionable due to an ankle injury.
The SportsLine model also recommends the under on the total points line of 219.5, estimating a combined 213 points. This projection aligns with historical data showing the under has hit in six of the last 10 head-to-head meetings, including three of five this season.
