SportsLine model projects weekend shift at 2026 PGA Championship

Mike McClure’s SportsLine computer model has simulated the final two rounds of the 2026 PGA Championship 10,000 times, generating weekend predictions for the tournament at Aronimink Golf Club. The model projects co-leader Alex Smalley to stumble and finish outside the top 10, advising against betting on him despite his current standing. Conversely, it identifies Chris Gotterup, who is three under par, as a strong value pick for a top-five finish.

The tournament enters the weekend with Smalley and Maverick McNealy co-leading at four under par. Defending champion Scottie Scheffler sits two shots behind the leaders at two under par and remains the betting favourite at +390 odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. The leaderboard is described as exceptionally compact, with 58 players within six shots of the lead.

SportsLine, built by DFS professional Mike McClure, claims a track record of correctly predicting 17 major championships, including five consecutive Masters titles and last year’s PGA and Open Championships. The model specifically advises fading Alex Smalley, citing his lack of career PGA wins and only one top-10 finish in a solo event this season.

The model highlights Chris Gotterup as a "live underdog" for outright bets and a strong value for positional bets. Gotterup is noted as the only player with multiple PGA wins this year and had a strong recent performance at the Cadillac Championship. He posted the tournament’s best round with a five-under 65 on Friday.

Other players in the mix include Cameron Young and Ludvig Åberg, both at two under par and priced at +950 and +1200 respectively. The model also targets several longshots, including one going off around 30-1 who is projected to make a "stunning run for the title," though the specific name is not disclosed in the provided text.