SportsLine model projects Thunder as favourites in Western Conference finals opener
The Oklahoma City Thunder are listed as 6.5-point favourites against the San Antonio Spurs, with the model recommending the Under for the total points line.
The SportsLine projection model has released its betting predictions for Game 1 of the 2026 NBA Western Conference finals, pitting the Oklahoma City Thunder against the San Antonio Spurs. The model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, projects the Thunder as 6.5-point favourites according to FanDuel Sportsbook odds.
The Thunder, who won the Northwest Division with a 64-18 record, are seeking back-to-back NBA championships. They advanced to the finals by sweeping the Los Angeles Lakers 115-110 on May 11. The Spurs, winners of the Southwest Division with a 62-20 record, aim to reach the NBA Finals for the first time since the 2013-14 season. San Antonio secured their spot by defeating the Minnesota Timberwolves 139-109 on Friday to win their semifinal series 4-2.
SportsLine’s model is recommending a bet on the Under for the total points line of 219.5. The projection estimates the teams will combine for 213 total points, with the Under hitting in 60% of the simulations. Historical data supports this stance, as the Under has hit in six of the last 10 head-to-head meetings, including three of five this season. Additionally, the Under has hit in 51 of the last 94 Spurs games when the line is over 205.
Player scoring projections indicate a concentrated offensive effort. The model forecasts Victor Wembanyama to lead the Spurs with 24.7 points, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is projected to lead the Thunder with 29.7 points. Only three Spurs players are projected to score 13 points or more, and just three Thunder players are forecast to score 16 points or more.
The game is scheduled for tipoff at 8:30 p.m. ET at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. San Antonio guard De'Aaron Fox is listed as questionable due to an ankle injury. The SportsLine model entered the second week of the second round of the 2026 NBA playoffs with a 26-9 record, or 74%, on top-rated NBA spread picks.
